Food + Grocery Australia 2026

The 2026 edition - hosted at Sofitel Brisbane Central on 20th and 21st May - had record attendance, with over 500 attendees comprised of CEOs, MDs, Sales Directors and other functional leaders from across the supplier and retailer landscape, as well as suppliers to the industry.

It was a packed agenda, including Q&A sessions with Woolworths, Coles, Metcash and Amazon, commentary on the geopolitical and economic landscape, presentations on how consumer trends are shaping shopper behaviour, panel discussions and professional development sessions.

Andrew Cannock and Mike Dickson (axr Recruitment & Search) and Paul Bull (MindPick) attended across both days. This document shares what was discussed in the presentations, what was discussed in the room, and - more importantly - what some of the potential implications could be for businesses operating in the Australian FMCG market right now.

The overarching tone across both days was best described as clear-eyed and forward-leaning. The industry is experiencing real pressure - cost of living, geopolitical volatility, regulatory change - and nobody in the room pretended otherwise. But the conversation stayed practical and action-oriented rather than spiralling into what one speaker said could easily become a “doom loop”.

The AFGC's own framing set this tone early - multiple pressures are converging simultaneously, but resilience is a strategy, not just a word. That theme repeated itself throughout - in the retailer sessions, in the financial analyses presented, and in the sideline conversations we had with leaders over coffee.

A few things struck us about how the room engaged:

First, the level of genuine openness from retail leaders was notable - particularly on cost and competition. In most part, the leaders from the major retailers seemed to genuinely take the opportunity to land key messages to their supplier base and clearly state their own organisational goals and perspectives.

Second, the AI conversation has matured. Twelve months ago it felt like aspiration. At FGA 2026, businesses, especially retailers, were presenting real use case examples. Any leaders who haven’t started thinking proactively about what AI could mean for their business, o, left the two days in no doubt that they had to start, and start quickly.

Third, and perhaps most interesting, the sheer number of attendees and the level of engagement was itself telling. It signals an understanding that the pressures and challenges facing the industry are significant, and important enough to take time out of busy schedules to come together and face into them collectively, which we find incredibly encouraging and typical of what makes our industry so strong, exciting, and robust.

1. A new inflation cycle is coming - and it's layered

Arguably the most data-rich of the economic updates was delivered by JP Morgan's Bryan Raymond, Executive Director and Lead Consumer Analyst. His analysis painted a clear picture: we are entering a multi-phase inflation cycle that, while unlikely to hit the 9% peak of 2022, could reach 6% - still a significant burden for consumers and businesses to absorb.

The four phases of pressure he outlined:

Transport and diesel costs - already coming through, with immediate impact.
Plastics and packaging - broad COGS impact, moving quickly.
Fertiliser - medium-term, mirroring the 2022 cycle, supply available but pricing elevated.
Wages - the longest fuse, with minimum wage increases expected in the 4-4.5% range and the phased introduction of full minimum wage for 18-20 year olds adding a compounding layer.

The consumer, at least for now, is holding up better than expected; CBA transaction data presented showed surprising resilience in discretionary spending outside of travel. But the caveat was clear: we may be in the eye of the storm. The government's temporary halving of fuel excise provided a buffer that will eventually roll off. Aldi's performance through the last cycle - absorbing margin pressure early, then surging in share - was cited as a warning against complacency about the value channel.

2. The margin story nobody wants to tell

The most commercially significant moment of the conference came from JP Morgan's analysis of 16 major Australian FMCG suppliers through the 2022-2024 inflation cycle. The finding: retailers - particularly Woolworths - grew gross margins consistently through that period. Supplier EBIT, in aggregate, did not follow.

The gap between retail margin expansion and supplier profitability was stark and measurable.

Paul Bull called this ‘the elephant in the hall’ - something most people in the room knew but that rarely gets said plainly at industry events. There is a clear disconnect between the discussion of value strategy and price trust and the reality of the impact on respective margins due to cost pressures. The implication for the current cycle is clear: suppliers entering cost conversations with retailers need to understand this context. The last cycle demonstrated that commercial justification, cost transparency, and speed matter - but so does the negotiating dynamic you're stepping into.

Both Coles and Woolworths acknowledged cost pressure is real, and both positioned themselves as willing to work collaboratively. But the data suggests collaboration has limits when margin targets are in play.

3. Amazon is here to stay & resonating with Shoppers

Matt Benham, Country Manager of Amazon Stores Australia, gave one of the more candid presentations of the conference. Amazon's message was direct: they are investing for the long term, they are getting faster – with sub-24-hour delivery now available in Sydney - and they are expanding into perishables through the Harris Farm partnership. The $50m robotics centre in Brisbane is not a pilot - it is a statement of intent. Matt repeatedly referred to the fundamentals of the Amazon Flywheel: unrivalled range, great value (not just prices) and the best convenience.

The implications for suppliers are significant. Amazon is the most visited e-commerce site in Australia. Customers use it to research products even when they ultimately buy elsewhere. For suppliers managing brand presence across channels, the question is no longer whether to engage with Amazon, but how. Matt's direct advice to the room: even brands that choose not to sell on Amazon should be investing in advertising on the platform to control how they show up in search.

The session also reinforced what the major retailers are responding to. Coles' customer fulfilment centres (CFCs) in Melbourne and Sydney - carrying 28,000 SKUs versus the average store's 22,000 - are partly a direct response to what Amazon enables online. The race for convenience, range depth, and delivery speed is intensifying across all channels.

4. AI adoption is no longer optional

AI was arguably the most consistent theme across both days, surfacing in each retailer session, the AWS presentation from Richard Taylor, and the Argon & Co Return on AI session from Paul Eastwood. The common thread: organisations that are not actively embedding AI into operations now are falling behind, not just missing out.

Amazon's approach was illustrative. Rather than a top-down rollout, they dedicated every Friday morning, through a full month, to in-person AI training sessions - mandatory, in-office, across all functions. They assigned subject matter experts to each team, ran cross-functional hackathons, and created a ‘FOMO’ dynamic that drove organic adoption. One Amazon team member, three years out of university, built a tool connecting 20 global systems that now receives 1,000 requests a day from teams worldwide.

The democratisation of data was a recurring phrase. AI is compressing the time between question and answer from days to minutes. For businesses in FMCG - where ranging decisions, promotional planning, and supply chain calls happen at pace - that compression has a direct commercial value. The call from multiple sessions was consistent: allocate time to understanding AI's application in your business now, not once competitors have already done it.

5. The customer is changing - and so is competition

Consumer behaviour was a thread woven through every session. The consistent picture: shoppers are not abandoning spend, but they are becoming more deliberate about it. Higher trip frequency, more advance planning, greater use of loyalty programs, and a willingness to cross-shop across multiple retailers and channels. JP Morgan's data suggested consumers are visiting as many as 40 different purchasing touchpoints per month.

The trade-down narrative was nuanced. Coles and Woolworths both pushed back on the idea that customers are simply down trading . The more accurate picture, as Coles described it, is a save and splurge dynamic: conscious value choices during the week, trading up on the weekend for something that feels indulgent. Premium sub-ranges at both retailers are growing even as value-tier options receive more attention.

Alongside this, a new wave of consumption trends is reshaping category demand. The rise of GLP-1 weight-loss medications is already influencing occasion frequency and portion expectations. The high-protein segment continues to outperform across most categories. And the convenience of meal delivery and direct-to-door fulfilment is pulling occasions away from traditional grocery missions in ways that are structural, not cyclical.

6. Creativity Matters: Zig Whilst Others Zag

One of the most enjoyable sessions of the conference was Brent Smart, recently departed Chief Marketing Officer at Telstra. Brent challenged the room to view marketing as underpinning future growth and tomorrows customers and shared examples of Telstra completely changing their approach to one anchored in craft, storytelling and be different.

Each of the major retailers took to the stage for a business conversation facilitated by AFGC Chair Bernie Brookes AM. What follows is a summary of each session's key positions.

Woolworths - Annette Karantoni, Managing Director, Woolworths Retail

Annette Karantoni is 14 months into her role as Managing Director of Woolworths Retail - the business unit encompassing Woolworths Supermarkets, Metro, Greenstock, and Woolworths Food Company Retail. Her session felt grounded in operational reality rather than strategy-speak.

On cost pressures: Annette's tone was somewhat harder than Coles on supplier cost conversations. While she acknowledged the pressures are real, the emphasis was firmly on commercial justification and process rigour. Woolworths will work through increases case-by-case and expects suppliers to come with the data to support their position. Less emphasis on the collaborative mitigate-together-first framing that Coles led with - more of a structured, evidence-based approach.

On consumer behaviour: Broadly aligned with the wider conference picture. Customers are shopping around more than ever, with channel fragmentation a clear and growing dynamic. Shoppers are managing their baskets carefully and spreading spend across more touchpoints - reinforcing the need for both retailers and suppliers to earn each visit rather than assume loyalty.

On range: On Woolworths ‘Customer Offer Reset’ program – currently being rolled out across the supplier base - this is about getting the right range, in the right stores. Store-level tailoring is a priority, with Woolworths' scale allowing for meaningful customisation at a local level. The goal is to give customers no reason to shop elsewhere. In conversations with Suppliers the response was often that their experience was somewhat in contrast to the view shared at conference.

On Amazon and new competition: Acknowledged Amazon seriously and pointed to Woolworths' own loyalty ecosystem and convenience proposition as the counter. No suggestion of complacency - the competitive intensity was treated as real and permanent.

On ways of working: A strong belief in in-person collaboration and face-to-face supplier relationships as the foundation for the best commercial outcomes. Woolworths have recently moved to a 3-days per week in-office, hybrid model.

Coles - Anna Croft (Chief Commercial & Sustainability Officer) and Leah Weckert (CEO & MD)

The Coles session was the most substantive of the retailer conversations, driven partly by the timing of the ACCC pricing judgment which landed in the days preceding the conference. Anna Croft and Leah Weckert were candid, measured, and notably non-defensive.

On the ACCC pricing judgment: Coles was clear that the court found the price increases themselves were legitimate, commercially justifiable, and reflected genuine supplier cost pass-through. The issue was the timing of discounting - Coles' internal four-week rule versus the court's 12-week standard. They acknowledged the outcome wasn't what they hoped for and committed to working through the implications with the industry. Importantly, they framed this as an opportunity to reimagine Australian promotional mechanics entirely - with the observation that 65 new or amended laws have applied to their business since January 2025 alone.

On cost and supplier price increases: The message was collaborative but disciplined. First port of call is always mitigation - different freight lanes, pallet roundings, pack sizes. Where increases are unavoidable, Coles prefers short-term levies with rise-and-fall clauses rather than baked-in permanent increases, particularly on fuel. They committed to the same expectation of themselves: if costs come back down, the levy comes back down.

On consumer behaviour: Customers are under genuine pressure but spend is not collapsing. The ‘save and splurge’ dynamic was clear - shopping down during the week, trading up on weekends. Coles' own Finest range and prepared meals are in double-digit growth, even as value-tier options receive more attention. The net message: it's not a trade-down story, it's a more deliberate trade-through story.

On range: Coles has been running store-specific ranging for 18 months and is seeing real results. The goal is not rationalisation but the right range for each catchment. Online through the CFCs carries 28,000 SKUs versus roughly 22,000 in a typical store, giving online shoppers meaningfully more breadth.

On competition: Coles acknowledged Amazon as a genuine competitor in bulk non-food and is responding through CFC range depth and adjusted pricing architecture. On health and processed food, Leah noted Coles is watching regulatory trends closely - particularly the direction of travel in the UK and US - and positioning as a proactive partner to government rather than waiting to be legislated at.

On ways of working: A clear return-to-office message. Coles' support centres are on three days per week minimum.

The belief: best commercial thinking happens in person, around whiteboards, with suppliers in the room.

On opportunity: Anna summarised areas of collaboration – in long term partnerships, that consider and unlock end to end and broader value chain possibilities and anchor around offers and reasons to shop at Coles.

Metcash - Doug Jones, Group CEO

Doug Jones brought a perspective that was notably different in character from the major supermarket sessions. Metcash's model - a wholesale distributor to independent retailers rather than a vertically integrated chain - means their strategic lens is genuinely distinct, and Doug leaned into that.

On value proposition: Doug's framing was consistent throughout: Metcash is a house of brands. Their private label penetration is intentionally lower than the majors, and Doug sees that as a strategic differentiator rather than a gap. The opportunity, particularly as the majors narrow their range, is to be the partner that brings suppliers' full strategy to life - including variants, formats, and SKUs that aren't getting space in Coles or Woolworths.

On cost and supplier relationships: Doug was refreshingly direct: the job is not to fight over price increases, it's to work together to deliver differentiated value to the consumer. Metcash has driven its own efficiencies through the cost cycle - delivery frequency, minimum order quantities, distribution centre investment - and expects the same conversation from suppliers. Fact-based, transparent, and focused on the shared supply chain.

On supply chain and resilience: One of the most interesting positions at the conference. Metcash deliberately designs for resilience over optimisation. Doug's Aussie lifeboat analogy was memorable: on smooth water, their supply chain may not be the fastest, but when the waves come - fires, floods, disruption - they recover fastest. They hold more stock closer to consumption and have less single-point-of-failure automation dependency. In an era of increasing volatility, this is a genuine competitive argument.

On new competitors: Metcash isn't trying to be Costco, Amazon, or DoorDash. Doug's view: know what you are, be the best at it, and resist the temptation to chase every format. The discipline is in understanding which shopper needs you serve and competing sharply within those. He also raised a pointed challenge to suppliers: if your brands are being sold through marketplace players who are pricing them as marginal revenue, you have more control over that than you might think - and more responsibility.

On independent retail as a growth story: The broader Metcash message was quietly bullish. As ranges narrow in the majors, shoppers looking for specific brands, formats, or community-relevant products are finding them in independent stores. Metcash's job is to make sure their retailers can capture that opportunity.

Amazon - Matt Benham, Country Manager, Amazon Stores Australia

Matt Benham was one of the more direct and confident voices across both days. The Amazon session covered a lot of ground quickly - grocery expansion, AI, delivery speed, the Prime proposition, and Amazon's long-term commitment to the Australian market.

On grocery expansion: Amazon's priority in everyday essentials is clear and deliberate. The Harris Farm partnership for perishables is the first step into fresh - leveraging Harris Farm's 1,000+ supplier relationships and quality standards while using Amazon's last-mile infrastructure. Matt was candid that doing perishables well takes skill they don't yet have at scale, hence the partnership model. But the direction of travel is unambiguous.

On delivery speed: The investment in fulfilment centre coverage means the majority of Prime members can now receive products in under 24 hours. In Sydney, customers can order by 9pm for delivery between 4-8am. This is no longer a differentiator being built - it is operational. The 50 million robotics centre in Brisbane signals it will continue to accelerate.

On the supplier relationship: Amazon's message to suppliers was nuanced. They are a two-sided marketplace, meaning suppliers have more control over their brand experience than in a traditional retail model - but that also means more responsibility. Brands appearing on Amazon through third-party sellers, without a direct relationship, risk brand damage through inconsistent pricing and presentation. Matt's advice: take control of how you show up, even if you haven't formalised the commercial relationship. Advertising on Amazon is worth doing regardless of whether you sell directly.

On AI: AI is Amazon's number one strategic priority right now. It is embedded into every function, including frontline vendor specialists. The model is democratised: every team member is being equipped to use AI tools to surface data, solve problems, and accelerate decisions. The five-day in-office mandate that Amazon implemented globally in January 2025 was partly driven by the belief that AI adoption and innovation happens faster when people are physically together.

On competition: Amazon loves competition. Matt said it plainly - and meant it. They believe competition improves customer experience across the industry, and they are competing on customer experience metrics (delivery accuracy, selection breadth, speed) rather than output financials. They are here for the long term.

We attended FGA 2026 from different vantage points - one in talent and commercial capability, one in strategic advisory and growth. Here is what we each took away.

Andrew Cannock, Director – Sales & Marketing and Mike Dickson, Director & Partner – Executive Search, [axr] Recruitment & Search

The number and overall calibre of attendees, the quality of content, and the level of engagement made for a genuinely valuable two days - one that many in the room would have found thought-provoking well beyond the conference itself.

Talent deserves more airtime as a standalone topic in forums like this, but it showed up more organically through this year's agenda than in previous years - most notably through the presentation by Melodie Nye, MD and GM of Mars Pet Nutrition ANZ, who called out talent as a primary lever in any leader's choices around growth.

What's clear is that organisations need to prioritise the talent conversation with the same rigour they apply to other strategic choices. The challenges and opportunities the industry faces are significant, and the success of any initiative deployed in response will ultimately be determined by the quality of the people developing and executing it.

Different businesses require different strengths, but if there is one quality that should become a common priority right now, it is the ability to adapt to change. The way an organisation behaves is the sum of how its people behave - ensuring your team has both the capability and the mindset to operate in a faster-moving, more complex environment isn't just a priority, but a necessity.

Paul Bull | Founder and Managing Director, MindPick

The take aways for me were clear. Yes, we have a number of challenges in the short term that we need to manage through as best as possible, but without exaggerating these challenges and instead focussing on what we can do and the opportunities available. We need to remember that our industry is very resilient and holds up well to economic shocks.

There are clearly differing views on how to manage through cost impacts and drive growth whilst being conscious of consumer confidence and impacted budgets, with the retailers articulating a considered position but previous data and supplier sentiment somewhat at odds to this.

A key theme was to start embracing the future, adopt and experiment with AI and ensure you have a culture of innovation and creativity, that enables you to evolve towards a future fit portfolio.

Based on everything we heard across both days, here are the seven areas we'd encourage every FMCG leader to be actively working on right now.

Prepare your cost story now. The next wave of supplier price conversations is coming, and it will be more scrutinised than the last. Build your fact base - by category, by cost driver, by phase - before you're in the room. Both Coles and Woolworths signalled they want transparency and commercial justification. Give them something rigorous to work with.

Don't underestimate Aldi. JP Morgan's analysis of Aldi's performance through the last cycle was a clear warning. When cost pressure increases, Aldi's value position strengthens faster than most businesses expect. If your ranging and pricing strategy doesn't account for an Aldi resurgence, revisit it.

Decide how Amazon fits your strategy. Not engaging is itself a decision - and often a costly one. Whether you sell directly, through third parties, or only use it for brand advertising, you need a considered position. The channel is too significant and growing too fast to leave to chance.

Start your AI adoption now. Amazon's model of dedicated in-person training weeks, cross-functional hackathons, and frontline empowerment is replicable at any scale, and an example of a bias towards action rather than trying to build the perfect plan. The organisations that will have a data and efficiency advantage in two years are the ones starting to build it today. This is not an IT project - it is a leadership priority.

Think diversity of range & channel. The channel fragmentation story cuts both ways. Shoppers are crossing between retailers looking for products that aren't ranging everywhere. If you have variants, formats, or SKUs being de-listed from the majors, there is a genuine conversation to have with independent retail through Metcash. Don't write off distribution options that are actively looking to differentiate on range.

Double down on creativity & innovation. Future growth comes from what you do today in terms of marketing investment and innovation thinking. As times get tougher avoid the temptation to delay or cut these investments. The data and examples were clear. Done well, this will enable Brands to outperform competition over the next cycle.

Invest in your commercial leadership capability. The complexity of the current environment - cost inflation, digital disruption, regulatory change, channel fragmentation, AI adoption - requires leaders who are genuinely multi-dimensional. If your commercial team is strong on account management but thin on analytics, digital, or strategic influencing, now is the time to address it.

[axr] Recruitment & Search is a boutique Australian recruitment firm founded in 2003 with one clear purpose: to enable great career decisions.

Formed of three distinct but interconnected practices in Sales & Marketing, Accounting & Finance and Executive Search, we specialise in mid-to-senior appointments across a broad range of industries, with a particular focus on FMCG and the broader consumer goods space.

Our approach is built on deep market knowledge, long-term relationships, and a genuine intent to help individuals understand and navigate their careers to unlock their potential. Our value proposition to organisations is to bring the right talent to the table, using the trust we’ve established within our talent communities to present their business journeys in a way that demonstrates how they align with individuals’ career journeys.

axr.com.au

MindPick is an FMCG advisory and professional development business built for the realities of the Australian consumer goods industry. We work with senior leaders and their teams through two core offerings: Growth Pods - curated peer mentoring groups that accelerate career development and sharpen commercial thinking - and Advisory, where our network of experienced FMCG executives works directly with businesses to stress-test strategy, build capability, and improve execution.

Our team brings decades of frontline FMCG experience across sales, category, and general management. We work with some of Australia's most significant consumer goods businesses.

mindpick.com.au